Should we be worried about Michael Turner?

by Teamfastpitch on Oct 21, 2009 11:26 AM EDT Comment 40 comments

Michael Turner has been having a little trouble matching last year's production. If the Falcon's hope to make a serious run at the Super Bowl, the running game is going to have to show up in a much bigger way.

Moreover, I've been wondering about Turner's fumbling problem too. Maybe his sore thumb from last year hasn't totally healed and he's worrying about fumbling with each carry.

He seems to be going down a lot easier as well. Not as many yards after contact as last year. With opposing defense's committed to stopping the run, there have been few running lanes for Turner to shoot through untouched.

Norwood going down really hurts our change of pace at that position. Did they sign anybody else this week?

Poll

Should we be worried about Michael Turner?

Yes

56 votes

No

42 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.

1 recs | Comment 40 comments

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Comments

Nope.

You have opinions. We all do. Some of yours may have to do with the Falcons. Sign up today and share them.

by tlozwarlock on Oct 21, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yup.

by Dave the Falconer on Oct 21, 2009 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

maybe

by gritzblitz on Oct 21, 2009 12:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

seriously..

the fumbling is a big problem(4 in 5 games is not good) but as far as the yards go I think you have to look at the D’s compared from last year to this year.. Our 5 first games last year were Lions, Bucs, KC, Panthers,and Packers. Thats 3 really bad defenses compared to Miami, Panthers, NE, SF, and the Bears all respected D’s(SF is alot better than when they showed against us). He doesn’t look to have that quick burst through the line but I think he’ll be just fine if he cuts out the fumbles.

by gritzblitz on Oct 21, 2009 12:56 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs

Nothing to add

Just agreed and Rec’d.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Oct 21, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does anyone know the extent of Turner's "chest injury"?

Turner is listed as “probable” with a chest injury. I thought there was something funny about him on Sunday.

by Teamfastpitch on Oct 21, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He'll be playing

That’s about all I know. Hopefully it’s nothing that’s going to slow him down, or we could be seeing a lot of Jason Snelling.

by Dave the Falconer on Oct 21, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn’t there a correlation about guys who attempt a certain amount of rushes one year, having down years the next season?

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Oct 21, 2009 1:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Curse of 370

ohhhhhhh ahhhhhhh it’ll rock the foundation on which we our lives

by gritzblitz on Oct 21, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

build

by gritzblitz on Oct 21, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thats it! A little more info I just found...

On 27 different occasions in NFL history, a running back has carried the ball 370 or more times in the regular season. You can sort those backs into three groups: backs that got hurt and were never the same, backs whose productivity just fell off, and Eric Dickerson.

Dickerson, Emmitt Smith, and Ricky Williams are the backs that were unaffected by this. Dickerson did it four times…

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Oct 21, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it’s too soon to put Turner in the “backs whose productivity just fell off” category (especially, considering the point gritz brought up earlier about the better defenses)…

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Oct 21, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think the 370 thing is crazy

AP had 363 carries last year and nobody has said anything about him. you can’t tell me that 7 carries has anything to do wich a guy being good or bad the next year.

by gritzblitz on Oct 21, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's just a fancy, round number way to say

Don’t overwork guys. Simple as that.

by Dave the Falconer on Oct 21, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn’t AP have some sort of special skin that prevents him from everything negative?

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Oct 21, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

GIZFLAM!

Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?

Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.

by FrankyWren on Oct 21, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

we should be more worried that our O line may not be performing as well in running situations and not opening up holes. I see a lot of no gain runs getting stuffed at the line. We need to get more push. Not sure what is going on with that. But then again Snelling is playing so we will be all good. Unleash the beast.

Life is a garden. Dig it!

by Hardcore Falcon on Oct 22, 2009 8:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How could you not be worried about Michael Turner

He’s looked really slow? I mean noticeably, really f’ing slow. Faith in Turner, I can understand, but to not worry about a guy who has looked like a shell of himself from last season is ludicrous.

by Cracker! on Oct 22, 2009 8:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well

I am not worried. He is fine. He will be great again. This week he will prove my point. I was at the game last week an hour before kickoff. In the warmups you can see, he still has speed. I dont think he is having any health issues. I really believe we just need to open up more lanes for him. I am calling for the O line to step up this week and let Turner and Snelling loose.

Life is a garden. Dig it!

by Hardcore Falcon on Oct 22, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's both

He may still have the speed, but he’s not flashing it getting to the hole. He needs to show better initial burst and the line needs to block better. Diagnosis: Doable.

by Dave the Falconer on Oct 22, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Turner's lack of production is caused by multiple reasons...

In the first 3 games, I though the OLine run blocking was average at best. I think he’s also getting less carries per game, but haven’t looked it up. Anyone care to do that for me? Missing Ovie last week hurt. He is the sledgehammer that wears down the ILBs, even more than Turner…

I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.

Elayne Boosler

by NaGaNole on Oct 22, 2009 9:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope he doesn't need more carries

Because he’s tied for #2 (with 3 other guys) with 20.0 carries per game. I guess that is down a bit, though – he got 23.5 per game last year. The issue isn’t number of carries, it’s what he’s doing with those carries. Last year his YPC was 4.5, this year it’s only 3.5, and the San Fran game was the only game so far this year that he’s been above 4 for the game (4.4)… They’ve got to fix whatever the problem is soon, or they’re gonna need to give him fewer carries, IMO.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Oct 22, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That 370 argument......

I read an article before the season (I can’t remember where) about The Burner and the curse of 370. It linked this article " http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/07/drunkards-light-posts-and-myth-of-370.html " which really puts things in perspective. BTW, most people don’t use total touches for the 370, only carries. Going by touches, this myth doesn’t hold water. It also doesn’t work when you use 365 carries. It’s definitely a case of a argument using bad statistics.

by BabyGoatEater on Oct 22, 2009 7:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I am well aware of that article

And if you read it, all Brian Burke basically says is that they come about the “Curse” using bad stats, but he does not refute that the RB will regress:

While it’s true that RBs with over 370 carries will probably suffer either an injury or a significant decline in performance the following year, the reason is not connected to overuse.

He pretty much says it is because of nothing more than regression to the mean…

As for the touches vs carries, and 365 vs 370, from their website:

Plenty of running backs get injured without hitting 370 carries in a season, but there is a clear difference. On average, running backs with 300 to 369 carries and no postseason appearance will see their total rushing yardage decline by 15 percent the following year and their yards per carry decline by two percent. The average running back with 370 or more regular-season carries, or 390 including the postseason, will see their rushing yardage decline by 35 percent, and their yards per carry decline by eight percent.

(emphasis mine)

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Oct 22, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For those of you already inclined to worry

Turner was limited in practice again. I guarantee you he plays, but still: Uh oh.

by Dave the Falconer on Oct 22, 2009 9:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He's probably been injured for a couple of weeks now

Coaching finally realized there was a problem. The tape doesn’t lie.They had four backs come in for a looksee this week with only Antone Smith getting paid to come on board. Maybe a little late but we will definitely see a new running back by next weekend. Don’t expect much from Turner this weekend.

Hopefully Jason Snelling will pick up some of the slack until then…..I kinda wish Ryan could run a little once in a while.

by Teamfastpitch on Oct 22, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only place I want Ryan running to is the locker room at halftime...

You think I want him taking shots from guys like Vilma or Beason? No way…

I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.

Elayne Boosler

by NaGaNole on Oct 23, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah he is limited becuase he has some aches and pains

nothing serious. I really think he goes wild in this game.

Life is a garden. Dig it!

by Hardcore Falcon on Oct 23, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

drink some

falcohol teamfastpitch. you will feel a lot better.

Life is a garden. Dig it!

by Hardcore Falcon on Oct 23, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a Saints Fan

and don’t even know who Michael Turner is so I voted no.

Hope this helps.

You’re welcome.

Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!

by Just 'Nother Day on Oct 27, 2009 5:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

meh

so back where ya belong and eat some govt cheese.

Life is a garden. Dig it!

by Hardcore Falcon on Oct 27, 2009 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok

I’m gonna’ so back where I belong. Cheese is much better than crow. Enjoy.

Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!

by Just 'Nother Day on Oct 28, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

meh

go back to your fema trailer… I already said the aints were going to beat us. that doesnt make you happy? I am thinking that they may set a record for points against our lame arsed D. Maybe 70+

Life is a garden. Dig it!

by Hardcore Falcon on Oct 28, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pssssst. Hey. Hardcore.

Don’t tell anybody I said this (just between me and you) but it’s gonna’ be a damn good game. We look at our schedule and see bum team, bum team, bum team, Falcons (oh $hit), bum team, bum team. Y’all have that spoiler effect.

(Like I said, don’t let anybody else see this, especially Jessie28. Thanks.)

Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!

by Just 'Nother Day on Oct 28, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs