Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 6

by tom slick on Oct 20, 2009 12:25 AM EDT Comment 56 comments

Here's this week's summary, for your viewing pleasure. Now featuring even more columns of hot, tasty data! Ratings and other details await you ahead.

Here's how the ratings are calculated. (In trying to be brief, I didn't explain this too well last week; I beg your pardon if I'm overly verbose this time.) The first step is to calculate Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. Easy enough; here's the statistics geek part. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that curve, they have a value between 0 and 1. The purpose of this is to more accurately measure each team's true position among the population of the league's teams. Now you have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got an overall rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive. Whew.

This week I added three data columns for the offensive and defensive "curved" ratings & totals. Without further fanfare, here are this week's ratings:

Rank	Power Rating		W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	87.3	Colts	5-0-0	27.4	14.2	0.821	0.925	1.747
2	85.2	Patriots	4-2-0	27.2	15.2	0.812	0.892	1.704
3	84.8	Saints	5-0-0	38.4	18.6	0.996	0.701	1.696
4	78.5	Falcons	4-1-0	24.6	15.4	0.687	0.883	1.570
5	76.3	Broncos	6-0-0	22.2	11.0	0.543	0.982	1.526
6	76.0	Vikings	6-0-0	31.5	20.2	0.940	0.580	1.520
7	75.2	Giants	5-1-0	29.7	19.8	0.898	0.606	1.505
8	73.0	Packers	3-2-0	26.0	18.6	0.759	0.701	1.460
9	71.1	Eagles	3-2-0	27.2	19.8	0.813	0.609	1.422
10	65.5	Steelers	4-2-0	23.3	18.7	0.614	0.696	1.310
11	65.3	Ravens	3-3-0	28.2	21.7	0.851	0.456	1.307
12	65.0	Cowboys	3-2-0	24.4	19.6	0.676	0.625	1.301
13	63.6	Cardinals	3-2-0	22.4	18.4	0.558	0.715	1.273
14	62.5	Bears	3-2-0	23.8	19.8	0.642	0.609	1.251
15	59.1	49ers	3-2-0	22.4	19.6	0.558	0.625	1.183
16	56.8	Jets	3-3-0	19.0	17.3	0.351	0.785	1.136
17	56.1	Seahawks	2-4-0	19.7	18.2	0.390	0.731	1.121
18	52.6	Dolphins	2-3-0	22.4	21.2	0.558	0.494	1.052
19	50.5	Bengals	4-2-0	19.7	19.7	0.390	0.620	1.010
20	50.3	Texans	3-3-0	23.8	22.8	0.643	0.362	1.005
21	47.8	Redskins	2-4-0	13.2	16.0	0.099	0.857	0.956
22	40.1	Chargers	2-3-0	24.8	27.2	0.698	0.104	0.801
23	32.6	Jaguars	3-3-0	20.0	24.5	0.410	0.242	0.652
24	32.4	Bills	2-4-0	15.5	21.5	0.178	0.470	0.647
25	24.4	Chiefs	1-5-0	16.3	24.0	0.213	0.276	0.489
26	22.8	Panthers	2-3-0	17.0	25.0	0.244	0.211	0.455
27	18.9	Raiders	2-4-0	10.3	23.2	0.042	0.336	0.378
28	14.6	Browns	1-5-0	11.5	24.7	0.061	0.231	0.292
29	13.5	Lions	1-5-0	17.2	31.3	0.253	0.017	0.270
30	11.4	Buccaneers	0-6-0	14.8	28.0	0.152	0.077	0.229
31	6.5	Titans	0-6-0	14.0	33.0	0.124	0.007	0.130
32	4.9	Rams	0-6-0	9.0	28.2	0.027	0.072	0.099

Hope youse guys like the format changes, your feedback is welcome. You can download the spreadsheet here. Cheers!

This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.

5 recs | Comment 56 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Great! Haha

Love the picture sets the whole section up! Haha.

New Orleans Hornets: The most inconsistent team in the NBA.

by Grayson on Oct 20, 2009 12:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm ashamed

I spent more time editing the screen capture than I did editing data on the spreadsheet!

by tom slick on Oct 20, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rec'd

“After evaluating millions of pieces of data in the blink of an eye, the Gamble-Tron 2000 says the winner is… Cincinnati by 200 points!? Why, you worthless hunk of junk.”

by Dave the Falconer on Oct 20, 2009 12:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So you've SEEN that episode, eh?

Impressive! Thanks for the Rec.

by tom slick on Oct 20, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Up until I just stopped watching recent seasons

I believe I had seen every Simpsons episode made for about ten years or more. In its prime, that was the best show on television. Period.

by Dave the Falconer on Oct 20, 2009 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dude

there is this website u can watch a lot of older episodes if u want ill send u the link in a email the site is awesome i love the older episodes

by Erihury on Oct 24, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice, thanks again!

Falcons seventh in point differential at +9.2/game. I would say that should be something that this team could maintain, but with the recent injuries it could be in doubt, especially considering the offenses ahead in our schedule.

"This is America, if we can’t self-righteously look down on others and blame them for our faults, the commies win."-----Cormican on Bleeding Green Nation w/r/t fans overreacting to the Eagles signing of Michael Vick

by Jesse28 on Oct 20, 2009 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Enjoy!

If the Falcons can keep those numbers up, we’ll certainly be seeing them in the playoffs. Doubt it will be a home game unless the Saints come back down to Earth, though.

by tom slick on Oct 20, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, since you mentioned them

The Falcons are 4th in PA @ 15.4, while the Saints are 9th @ 18.6, which really isn’t that much difference. What separates the two is the PF with us sitting in 10th @ 24.6 and the Saints leading the league with 38.4. That’s what’s going to be difficult; our defense can slow them down, but by how much and can our offense do enough to cover their scoring? And not just once, but twice.

If they play the season injury free and their players don’t get worn down, they are the perfect storm to ruin just about every teams desires to win a game against them. Maybe we can take one game from them, but it might be the second time around. So, let’s say we lose both and finish second in the division. This shifts the importance to every non-divsional NFC opponent. Those all become must-wins to secure a Wild Card spot.

Personally, I think we have the firepower to up the offensive production, but I wonder if it’s something we can do consistently. As of yet, it isn’t and that could bite us at the wrong time if we aren’t careful. So here’s to blowing the doors off people, especially the Saints!

by Jesse28 on Oct 20, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh

I didn’t even bother with those other two teams in our division. Any way you slice it they are both in the bottom third of the league and are non-factors. We should not lose a game to either.

by Jesse28 on Oct 20, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

winning 4 or more of our division games

might be the difference between a wild card and a long off season.

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Oct 20, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That second Carolina game

Worries me a little bit. They’re still not great by any stretch of the imagination, but they’re starting to figure it out a bit. If they beat Buffalo for 3 wins in a rown, they could gain confidence to propel them through the rest of the season… The Falcons just can’t screw around with the teams that are obviously inferior (TB, WAS, BUF, etc).

By the way, I was a little surprised to see the Falcons above the Broncos and Vikings. Great work again, tom!

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Oct 21, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Got to win the ones we're supposed to

That’s one of the marks of a mature team.

The Broncos & Vikings are both perfect examples of how the algorithm works. When you weigh offense & defense equally, a team will only rise so high in the rankings if they have an average offense or defense. In addition, if you’re insanely good on one side of the ball, you get a “diminishing returns” effect as you get better. The highest ranked teams end up being the ones who are in the upper echelons on BOTH sides of the ball.

by tom slick on Oct 21, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course

That’s a given every year, a constant if you will. I’m saying we shouldn’t lose any divisional games except to the Saints, maybe once, maybe twice.

Ugh, I had something all typed out, but since I’m not sure I’m reading the context of your comment as you may have intended it, I’ll just say I agree (which of course I do, you have to win all your division games).

by Jesse28 on Oct 21, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, all I was really saying is at least 4 division wins are going to be important

whether that means we sweep Carolina and Tampa Bay or if one of those wins comes against New Orleans. It doesn’t matter how you get your division win-loss record, it just matters what the numbers say

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Oct 22, 2009 6:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"On any given Sunday......" or in this case Monday

I keep coming back to that reference. Let’s face it. The falcons always step up their game a few notches when they play the Saints. This coming week will be no different. We got past Miami by sheer will (aided by a miracle or two). That will is going to have to be in tact this coming Monday. It’s gonna’ be one hell-of-a game, boys!

My stomach is already in my throat and I’ve stocked up on hydrochlorothiazide! (You older dudes will know what I’m talking about!)

The Superdome is rockin’ so please come a knockin’!

Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!

by Just 'Nother Day on Oct 27, 2009 4:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha

i would expect nothing less from a falcon fan then to rank the saints 3rd behind the pats who have they beateb not to mention there 2 losses and whats with atl. being ranked in front of the vikings haha nice dreaming see you next week

geaux saints

by simone219 on Oct 21, 2009 9:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's where the numbers put them

It isn’t something being manipulated by a random fan. And good night, learn to use some punctuation please. Also, stop spelling words with extra vowels. Geaux is not a word, not even in French, so stop it. You aren’t cool, you aren’t hip, you’re just plain dumb.

by Jesse28 on Oct 21, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since you don't know

where “geaux” comes from I’m gonna’ let you slide, this time.

Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!

by Just 'Nother Day on Oct 27, 2009 4:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All numbers, man

You can argue whether the numbers lie, but not about the math that gets them there. It’s not an opinion driven piece.

by Dave the Falconer on Oct 21, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hi, Saints fans

Hope you Saints fans are in the habit of reading an article before you comment on it, most of you I’ve met are nice, intelligent people.

Don’t make too much of a bunch of numbers. One would have to be a fool or an idiot to think a simple algorithm like this is intended to be an accurate representation of reality. It’s just meant for fun and perhaps to form a basis for discussion.

by tom slick on Oct 21, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

geaux saints

by simone219 on Oct 21, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Geaux home

I keed, I keed. Like Jesse says, it’s just where the formula spit them out. And I’m not sure if I’m understanding what you wrote, but the Saints didn’t beat the Pats (yet). If you want something to stoke your Saints ego, try here and here. Football Outsiders say they are the #1 Offense, #2 Defense, and have a 88.5% chance of winning the Division (heck, they give them a 2.5% chance of going undefeated). Clearly, the Saints are unstoppable – we should give them the Lombardi Trophy right now and get it over with…

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Oct 21, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed 100%

im glad you see the light

by simone219 on Oct 21, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess it was too much

to expect your simple brain to be able to comprehend sarcasm.

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Oct 21, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or he's being sarcastic

And we’re stuck in an infinite loop.

My god! It’s full of stars.

by Dave the Falconer on Oct 21, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What a conundrum that would be

by Jesse28 on Oct 21, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thats cool

just a little poking fun at a div rival
just getting a head start good luck this week see you next week

ps jesse it’s a cajun thing

geaux saints

by simone219 on Oct 21, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know what you're saying

But it’s not and I still hate it because it’s still wrong. The French word for go is ‘aller’. In Creole the word is ‘ale’. It’s not even Cajun French. Replacing the letter ‘o’ in every word with ‘eaux’ is highly irritating to me. I mean, why write four letters when one works just fine.

Here is the only definition I could find for ‘geaux’ courtesy of Urban Dictionary:
A play on words used by douchebags that are fans of LSU, who lack creativity and probably don’t even know the actual French word for “go.” Often seen wearing a white belt or sunglasses with white frames. Rivals only fans who say “THE Ohio State University” as far as how big a douche they are.

Wow, it just struck me how much I dislike this. Nothing personal, I’ll take it out on the wife later tonight.

by Jesse28 on Oct 21, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HAHAHAHAHHAAHAH

by Hcgadawgs on Oct 23, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's like these idiots

are proud to be so ignorant and wrong! Out of the gene pool with you!

by tom slick on Oct 23, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Selective Breeding?

Now that’s something I could vote for.

by Jesse28 on Oct 26, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully

they only breed with their own kind.

by tom slick on Oct 26, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh gawd, let's hope not

Because I bet they multiply like Gremlins.

by Jesse28 on Oct 26, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

CONUNDRUM?!?!?

Here we are talking football and Jesse28 wants to talk birth control. Jeeeez!

Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!

by Just 'Nother Day on Oct 27, 2009 5:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

its an infestation

i’ve meet like 2 saints fan before this year now they’re everywhere

by gritzblitz on Oct 21, 2009 1:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hurricane Katrina

displaced a lot of them to Atlanta, a few years back.

by tom slick on Oct 21, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You’re Welcome!

Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!

by Just 'Nother Day on Oct 27, 2009 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe its like fleas

Our exterminator said flea eggs can lie dormant for up to 3 years before hatching..thats why they’re so hard to get rid of.

by zooker on Oct 21, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Should there be a disclaimer?

Maybe it’s best to explicitly state that the rankings are just “Fun With Numbers”, each and every time. Did this sound too serious, like it’s supposed to be Gospel Truth? Jeez, I don’t want to attract the ignorant, like sugar attracts flies.

by tom slick on Oct 21, 2009 2:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No need

We have too many Stat Police on staff to let it get out of hand.

by Jesse28 on Oct 21, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

unless they are la. state police i dont see how that will calm down saints fans and in my case that would have to be ms state police

by simone219 on Oct 21, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

...

Not ‘state’, but ‘stat’. It’s no wonder so many people were displaced by Katrina, you are all too thick headed to know when to get out of nature’s way. I didn’t realize I would have to hold your hand through this.

by Jesse28 on Oct 21, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Katrina jokes might still be considered "too soon"

Food for thought.

by Dave the Falconer on Oct 21, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No thanks, I'm full

So much more I could say here, but since I’ve been swatted by the rolled up PC newspaper, I’ll pass for now.

by Jesse28 on Oct 22, 2009 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haha

by Dave the Falconer on Oct 22, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

your right

my fault i just assumed people from georgia didnt know how to spell state

by simone219 on Oct 21, 2009 8:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You criticize Georgians for not being able to spell

and you misspell the first word you use? How hilarious is that?

Dude, you’re embarrassing yourself. Quit while you have a little dignity left.

by tom slick on Oct 21, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BAHAHAHA!

Great response! Made me “Lol.”

New Orleans Hornets: The most inconsistent team in the NBA.

by Grayson on Oct 22, 2009 5:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, that's enough.

Simone219 and Jesse28, shake hands and be BFF. (“Love Story” playing softly in the background.)

Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!

by Just 'Nother Day on Oct 27, 2009 5:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ooops

Maybe this will help.

Simone219, if you are a cajun, BFF means Best Friends Forever.

Jesse28, I’ve seen your avatar. You’re gay enough to already know what it means.

Now, be nice.

Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!

by Just 'Nother Day on Oct 27, 2009 5:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Riiight

Coming from the guy who just dropped a BFF comment, kettle meet pot. Seriously, I would gladly reply with something cerebral, but the fact that you’re a Saints fan and you were in the Army just means you wouldn’t get it anyways.

Also, Cobra Commander wants you to know: “I will not allow such impertinence! Especially from an ~~enlisted man~~ inbred!”

by Jesse28 on Oct 27, 2009 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs