FanPost
Professor Frink's Power Rankings
For several years, my nerdy alter ego has maintained a spreadsheet that assigns overall ratings to each NFL team, based on a simple statistical analysis of offensive and defensive points scored & allowed. Surprisingly, it's historically been a pretty good predictor of victory, once you get 5 or 6 weeks into the season.
Weekly results and details after the jump...
Here's how the math works. For each team, calculate Points For per Game and Points Against per Game. Then, fit the league's offensive & defensive data onto a couple of Bell Curves (or normal distributions, if you prefer), a very common analysis technique. Depending where each team lies on the curve, this yields a value between 0 and 1 for each team's O and D. For each team, add the offensive and defensive values, then multiply by 50 to put the ratings on a 0-to-100 scale. Statistics 101 stuff, nothing fancy.
Not perfect (what power rankings are?) but I like the simplicity, and it's stood the test of time fairly well IMO. Without further ado, for your amusement...
|
Rank |
Rating |
|
W-L-T |
PF/GM |
PA/GM |
|
|
1 |
91.2 |
|
5-0-0 |
30.2 |
14.2 |
|
|
2 |
90.4 |
|
4-0-0 |
36.0 |
16.5 |
|
|
3 |
86.7 |
|
5-0-0 |
27.4 |
14.2 |
|
|
4 |
83.4 |
|
5-0-0 |
31.2 |
18.0 |
|
|
5 |
79.5 |
|
3-1-0 |
25.5 |
15.8 |
|
|
6 |
73.3 |
|
3-2-0 |
27.6 |
19.4 |
|
|
7 |
71.0 |
|
3-1-0 |
31.8 |
21.5 |
|
|
8 |
71.0 |
|
2-3-0 |
23.0 |
16.4 |
|
|
9 |
70.0 |
|
3-1-0 |
26.3 |
19.5 |
|
|
10 |
69.7 |
|
5-0-0 |
19.8 |
8.6 |
|
|
11 |
64.9 |
|
3-2-0 |
24.4 |
19.6 |
|
|
12 |
59.7 |
|
3-2-0 |
22.6 |
19.6 |
|
|
13 |
59.2 |
|
3-2-0 |
20.2 |
17.6 |
|
|
14 |
59.1 |
|
3-2-0 |
20.8 |
18.2 |
|
|
15 |
59.1 |
|
3-2-0 |
22.4 |
19.6 |
|
|
16 |
58.0 |
|
4-1-0 |
20.2 |
18.0 |
|
|
17 |
55.2 |
|
2-2-0 |
26.0 |
23.3 |
|
|
18 |
53.0 |
|
2-3-0 |
22.4 |
21.2 |
|
|
19 |
48.7 |
|
2-3-0 |
14.6 |
16.4 |
|
|
20 |
46.1 |
|
2-2-0 |
25.3 |
25.5 |
|
|
21 |
45.4 |
|
2-2-0 |
21.3 |
22.3 |
|
|
22 |
44.4 |
|
2-3-0 |
23.0 |
24.0 |
|
|
23 |
29.2 |
|
2-3-0 |
19.4 |
25.4 |
|
|
24 |
26.3 |
|
1-4-0 |
15.4 |
23.2 |
|
|
25 |
23.2 |
|
1-4-0 |
20.6 |
32.4 |
|
|
26 |
17.2 |
|
0-5-0 |
16.8 |
27.6 |
|
|
27 |
16.9 |
|
0-5-0 |
16.8 |
27.8 |
|
|
28 |
16.8 |
|
1-4-0 |
11.0 |
24.2 |
|
|
29 |
15.5 |
|
1-3-0 |
14.3 |
26.0 |
|
|
30 |
10.6 |
|
1-4-0 |
9.8 |
26.0 |
|
|
31 |
10.4 |
|
0-5-0 |
13.6 |
28.0 |
|
|
32 |
3.6 |
|
0-5-0 |
6.8 |
29.2 |
The full spreadsheet can be downloaded here.
If any of youse guys want to see future editions of this, please comment or do a Rec. I don't mind the few minutes' work posting this weekly, provided there are people who care to read it. Cheers!
This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.
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