Digging Deeper into the Box Score: Week 3
by orang3b on Oct 1, 2009 5:27 PM EDT
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Sorry for the delay for what I’m sure is a highly anticipated version of Digging Deeper. I got a case of the post-loss funk, plus I was fairly busy at work & home. Anyhoo… We all know this was just an ugly game all-around. Special Teams was acceptable, with another good performance from Weems, but even Koenen had his rough spots – like the 29 yard punt that set up the Patriots with good field position for their first TD drive. Let's see if there is any silver lining to that storm cloud that just passed through.
Offense
By my count, Turner had a 47% Success Rate against the Patriots, although his longest run was only 7 yards. He seemed to have a little more room to run after the Wilfork injury, but he only got three of his fifteen carries in the second half. The Patriots grinding out the clock, their growing lead, and the Falcons inability to pick up first downs worked together to limit Turner’s touches. Overall this season he has a 49% Success Rate, good for #18 in the league. His problem is his inability to break 10+ yard runs so far.
Matt Ryan’s numbers look decent, but he actually had a bit of an off day (for him). He had pretty good success on first downs, but the problem was three different 3rd and 3’s, plus a 3rd and 4 that he was unable to convert into first downs. The Patriots have the #22 Pass Defense (by VOA) even after Week 3, an area the team should have been able to exploit more. On a positive note for him and the O-Line, he wasn’t sacked once.
Tony Gonzalez kept his streak alive of consecutive games with a catch (134 games in a row), but the Patriots were able to effectively take him out of the game (he only had 2 targets). The Catch Rates of the other receivers look good, but the team wasn’t able to sustain their drives. The one thing that is perplexing to me is how Mularkey is using Roddy White. Every single one of his six targets were “short” (under 15 yards). Jenkins, on the other hand, had three of his eight targets listed as “deep”, plus the one offensive pass interference penalty that called back the deep Touchdown. It seems like they’re using Roddy like a 32-year-old possession receiver. He’s a speedster, get him some shots deep!
Defense
When a defense takes care of first down, the other downs take care of themselves. The Jets held the Patriots to 3 yards or less on 18 first-down plays last week, forcing the Patriots’ offense to go from pass-heavy to pass-exclusive and allowing Jets Coach Rex Ryan to enjoy the jumbo sampler from his all-you-can-blitz buffet. (Mike Tanier, Week 3 Matchups, NYTimes.com Fifth Down Blog)
The Falcons “held” the Pats to 3 yards or less on 14 first down plays, but that number is inflated. The Patriots had 34 first down plays overall, because they converted for 28 new first downs (15 Passing, 10 Rushing, 3 by Penalty – NFL average so far this year is ~19 first downs per game). They seemed to do a good job of slowing the Pats down when they were in their shotgun/spread formation, but they could do absolutely nothing to slow them in the 2+ TE formations. Several players said the Patriots game plan surprised them. Fine, they didn’t expect the run as much – but the Pats went back to it again and again, and they were never able to stop it.
We actually should’ve known this was going to be a bad game defensively very early. Excluding incomplete passes (many of which were Brady’s or the WR’s fault), the Falcons had 4 successful plays (“Stops”) on defense in the first half. FOUR. Actually, by the numbers, the defense was better in the second half – just not in the big situations. The team got a couple of red zone stops in the first half to force field goals, and weren’t able to stop key 3rd and 4th down conversions in the second half.
I found out that the Plays/Stops/Defeats are given 0.5 credited for an assisted tackle, so these will reflect that change in counting. Next week I will give a cumulative revised total, and hopefully a look at the pass coverage so far (no promises on that, though).
|
Name |
Plays |
Stop Rate |
Defeats |
|
16 |
16% |
1.5 |
|
|
Mike Peterson |
8 |
50% |
2 |
|
7.5 |
7% |
0.5 |
|
|
6.5 |
23% |
0.5 |
|
|
6 |
25% |
0.5 |
|
|
5.5 |
18% |
0 |
|
|
5 |
0% |
0 |
|
|
4.5 |
33% |
0.5 |
|
|
4.5 |
44% |
0 |
|
|
3.5 |
71% |
0 |
|
|
2.5 |
40% |
0 |
|
|
2.5 |
20% |
0 |
|
|
2 |
50% |
0 |
|
|
1.5 |
33% |
0.5 |
|
|
1 |
0% |
0 |
We can see real quick that while Lofton made a ton of tackles, most of them were cleaning up the trash downfield (his 1.5 Defeats is actually three different assisted tackles). Trey Lewis made several tackles, but these numbers seem to indicate he was getting pushed around a bit. I didn’t notice him much during the game, but these numbers say that Chauncey Davis put out a good effort.
I didn’t feel like Moss was killing us, but he made his catches really count – eight of his ten catches went for first downs, including two on 4th downs (plus the Pass Interference on Grimes). They also moved him around effectively, as he was covered/tackled by: Houston, Williams, Coleman, DeCoud, Grimes, etc. "Death by 1000 Paper-cuts" instead of a couple big bombs... the final outcome was still the same.
Every single Special Teams tackle was listed as assisted, and here’s the guys that made the plays: Finneran, Sidbury, Harris, Snelling, Weems (x2), and Nicholas (x2).
Here’s a disturbing stat for you: the team is #24 in Yards Allowed. “But wait”, you say. “The team is tied for 9th in Points Allowed. Isn’t that what really matters?” Well, yes – and no. That kind of performance is not sustainable. They need to improve over the rest of the field, not rely on their Red Zone heroics to bail them out.
Reminder:
Successful Play – 45% of yardage needed on First Down, 60% of yardage needed on Second Down, 100% of yardage needed on Third or Fourth Down.
Stop Rate – Percentage of Plays stopping the offense short of a Successful Play.
Defeat – A Stop on Third or Fourth Down, and Interception, or a Play that results in a Fumble (whether the defense recovers or not – that means the defender who causes the Forced Fumble gets the Defeat, not the guy who comes up with a Fumble Recovery).
DVOA – Takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.
Next week I’ll try to provide the numbers through Week 3. I'll also provide some of the insight from the DVOA numbers, since the opponent adjustments should start to kick in.
This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.
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32 year old possession receiver
If that line didn’t make complete sense, it’s because I didn’t finish my thought. I included it in my “rough draft” to remind myself to link to TJ Houshmandzadeh’s stats. Of course, I forgot. Notice how his Yards per Reception steadily went down until bottoming out last year under 10. Yes he is a valuable player, but he definitely isn’t an explosive player (I probably wouldn’t call him a “weapon” in the passing game). For instance, in 2007 (we’ll ignore last year since Carson Palmer was out most of the year) he was the #16 WR in DYAR (total Value), but that was because he had 170 targets (tied for most in the league with Brandon Marshall). Housh was only #38 with a 4.8% DVOA (per-play-basis). That means he was only 4.8% better than an “average” WR, but he got tons of plays… This is not what I want Roddy to turn into yet (for comparison, last year Roddy’s DVOA was 22.1%, good for #5).
Very Interesting Analysis
Our stop rates across the defensive line and linebackers need to get much higher in a hurry.
The statistic is nothing short of glaring when you are observing the defensive line. While there’s a possibility that there’s some error depending on where plays were run at our defense, it’s quite obvious that we are not winning the battle at the point of attack. But based on that information, I think we can make a few further observations:
1) John Abraham is obviously the most consistent tackler and playmaker since if you balance the number of snaps that he’s actually in versus his production.
2) Jamaal Anderson was our biggest liability. A d-lineman making only a couple of tackles and assisted tackles is all well and good, but a 20% stop rate indicates that Anderson is getting pushed back and making tackles further down the field, rather than stuffing plays at the point of attack.
3) Biermann and Davis continue to make the absolute most of their opportunities. Both should really be getting more of a look.
4) Thomas Johnson is serviceable. He’s not a star, but he’s also not the reason for us getting mobbed.
5) Babs didn’t have a great game. Probably because he’s undersized and got pushed around a bit. Still, it wasn’t a bad game by any means, just not one we’re accustomed to.
6) Our linebacking corps didn’t have a great game either. Overall I think it can be said that they didn’t make the plays when they needed to be made. Racking up a lot of tackles is great but on 3rd and 3 and 4th and short you need to hit the hole and make a tackle at the LOS or in the backfield. The overall numbers seem like we’re too passive and not aggressive, exactly the opposite of what we observed in the Miami game.
I’m concerned offensively about the deep ball, but I tend to think that’s going to improve. But these defensive numbers bother me greatly, and I point particularly at JA. I’m inclined to go from calling him a “bad pass rusher but good against the run player” to a straight up liability on the field. His athletic prowess is outshined by his terrible technique, and if it the technique isn’t there after 2 and 3/16ths seasons, then that’s a sign it just ain’t coming in.
Time to give Chauncey the starting job, in my opinion.
Good observations
Here’s a couple thoughts:
1) Chauncey and Jamaal – I haven’t taken a closer look at the personnel rotations against the Pats, but I know a good bit of the time in the first two games Abe and Biermann were both in for obvious passing situations, and Chauncey and Jamaal were in (together) for obvious running situations. As much as they have been rotating guys in & out, I’m not sure who is “starting” is really a big deal. You hit the nail on the head about Biermann and Davis making the most of their opportunities, though…
2) Aggresiveness – I think it’s a lot easier to be aggressive when there is almost no threat of getting hurt deep down the field (Pennington). The Pats coming out with a heavy dose of running & play-action passing probably helped to slow down the Linebackers, too…
Our defense is built on speed, and is a bit undersized across the board.
Speed is negated by rain. Let’s pray for sunny days in the away games….
I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.
Elayne Boosler
Not to be critical, but TG deserves more than 2 targets. Gonzo is always open even with 2 defenders on him because he still has the advantage due to superior skill. He drew double coverage for 12 years in KC and still is the number 9 all time receiver in the NFL, so he is used to double teams.
I also think we should have continued to feed Burner the ball in the 2nd half. Seemed obvious when WIlfork went out. Turner would grind down their D and keep the game close by keeping Brady off the field.
15 runs for Turner and 2 Gonzalez targets were the main reasons Atlanta lost as I see it.
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