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2009 Will Be A Tough Year For The Atlanta Falcons

Absence makes the heart grow fonder...
--
Thomas Haynes Bayly

If that quote holds true, you all must now rank me slightly above your first-born children in the order of affection. I could make up some elaborate story about how I single-handedly battled ninjas in the sweltering deserts of Mercury, but the simple explanation is that I've been busy and suffering from a little post-season malaise. Now that it's out of the way, expect normalcy to rear its ugly head around here again.

I thought we'd start with 2009, a season that seems critical to determining the identity of a young Falcons team. I'm well aware that our team and every team we're set to face will likely look a lot different after the draft and free agency have rolled up, but I think it's instructive to take a look at our chances of ridding ourselves of the stigma of never having back-to-back winning season.

It's not an easy slate next year. We'll get the Giants, the possibly retooled Cowboys, and difficult games that are mercifully at home against the Redskins and Eagles. The Patriots are notoriously a pain in the ass to play on their own turf, and we'll also draw the Dolphins and their own Coach of the Year candidate Tony Sparano. Throw in our divisional competition and you've got a schedule without a lot of easy games coming up.

Personally, I think that a lot is going to depend on where Comrade Dimitroff takes us in the off-season. If he manages to legitimately improve the defense and add a little bulk to the offensive line, I'm reasonably confident the Falcons can find 9 to 10 wins and pull off a playoff berth. If the Falcons stay in the same gear as last year, my predictions are on much shakier ground.

What would you guys project? Can the Falcons repeat their amazing season, or should we temper our expectations?

Poll
How many wins for the Falcons in 2009?
1-3
4 votes
4-6
23 votes
7-9
297 votes
10-12
426 votes
13-16
55 votes

805 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 15 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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The Schedule is a tough one.

One that will surely test our mettle as a good team. We’re coming off of 11 wins and a valiant effort against the Super Bowl-bound Arizona Cardinals.

We’re going to be facing a possibly Andy Reid-less Eagles, a Patriots team that has its star QB back, and a Cowboys team that could possibly be good (just depends on who’s at the helm). Believe it or not, I actually feel more confident about our Division games than our Conference or Non-Conference games this season.

Factors I’m taking into consideration:
Matt Ryan will be better.
We will bolster our defense in the draft and free agency.
We went 7-1 at home in 2008.
We have a little trouble on the road in hostile environments.

Here’s my rundown:

Tampa Bay @ Home: W
New Orleans @ Home: W
Carolina @ Home: W
@ Tampa: W
@ New Orleans: L
@ Carolina: L
Philly @ Home: W (revenge!)
@ Dallas: L
Washington @ Home: W
@ NYG: L
Buffalo @ Home: W
@ New England: L
Miami @ Home: W
@ NYJ: W
Chicago @ Home: W
@ San Fran: W

Predicted End of Season record: 11-5

Iffy Wins: Chi-Town @ Home, @ NYJ, @ Tampa W, Philly @ Home
Iffy Losses: @ NYG (I honestly believe we can come up with a game plan to win), @ Carolina, @ NO, @ Dallas

Playoffs? Let’s just get that first-ever back-to-back winning seasons.

"If the Falcons ever manage to win a Super Bowl in my lifetime, I'll french kiss a toilet." - a friend.

by Adam Schultz on Jan 19, 2009 10:05 AM EST reply actions  

Maybe I'm a pessimist but...

I’ve probably been around longer than most of you.

I remember 1973 when we went 9-5 in a 14 game season and just missed the playoffs. 1974? 3-10. I think our main running back, Dave Hampton got hurt and we didn’t have a QB to speak of.

I remember 1978. The year Lee Mazzetti (sp) kicked us into the playoffs despite no offense (Bart was probably hurt) but we had the “gritz blitz” defense and we beat the Eagles in the 1st round. In 79 we sucked again but by 80….

 I remember 1980 as the year the Falcons offense took off. Complete turn around on offense. Bartkowski hooking up with Alfred Jenkins and Wallace Francis. William Andrews plowing over everybody in sight. Leeman Bennett had the team cooking. Only problem was our defense had gotten old and the blitzing didn’t work any more. Our defense got lit up. We had a couple down years so we fired Bennett and brought in Dan Henning. Bad move. We stunk for the rest of the 80’s.

I remember that big giant douche, Glanville. The year we lucked into the playoffs (91) I though, oh no that means we’re stuck with this poser for at 3 years. Nothing but selfish players on that team, Sanders, Rison etc. And we brought in more like them – Jeff George in particular. The firt Falcons QB to flip off the fans (but not the last) .

I remember Dan Reeves trying to turn this franchise around and he did pretty well. Superbowl in 98 but we immediately imploded after winning in Minn. Thanks Eugene Robinson and Ray Buchanan. Next year, Jamaal went down in the 1st game and there went the season. All the Vick years, I never really believed we were that good. Mora was a clown. In still don’t see why Seattle made him HC.

You might say yeah but that was the Smiths and that Vick-Mora-Petrino were learning experiences for Blank and that Mike Smith and Dimitroff have righted the ship. Thats my hope, I’ve just been following this team to be suckered in by one good year. Yes, I’m a pessimist but I have my reasons .

http://www.nflteamhistory.com/nfl_teams/atlanta_falcons/year_by_year_results.html

"When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something"

-Dick Butkus

by zooker on Jan 19, 2009 11:38 AM EST reply actions  

Ask me again in July...

Fan since 1970 and zooker pretty much speaks truth in his history lesson, although I’m a bit more optimistic than he based on what Smith showed me last year. I, too, have had my heart broken before.

Still, it’s way too early to be predicting since we just can’t say for sure what any of these teams, from the divisional rivals to the Giants, Cowboys and 49ers (just to name a couple) will bring to the table in 2009. I’m cautiously predicting 9 wins, maybe more based on what happens in the draft and the offseason.

by johnnybacardi on Jan 19, 2009 12:21 PM EST reply actions  

Pessimism is to be expected

After all the years of turmoil we have had but I do sense something different in the attitude, play style, coaching and young raw talent this team has showed. Not one time this year did I hear about anyone talking about themselves. Each and every interview i read or heard the players and coaches were praising the other players on the team. I can see the possibility that the team overplayed their talents but if that is due to coaching then we have the best coaches in the NFL. If it is the players really having the talent to rise to such a great year then that talent will continue to gel and get better. But i think it is both. We have untapped talent and the coaching to bring out the best in everyone.
Next season I expect the team to be even better with a few key player moves this team will be awesome.

by Funballad on Jan 19, 2009 12:22 PM EST reply actions  

Man

Let’s hear it for blind optimism!

If you’re a Falcon fan, being optimistic is like wearing shorts and no shirt in the middle of the North Pole. But by God I’m feeling good about this year. Will we make the playoffs? Who knows. Will we have a winning season? I think so. Even if it’s 9-7, it’s a winning season and I honestly think we can get those 9 wins.

"If the Falcons ever manage to win a Super Bowl in my lifetime, I'll french kiss a toilet." - a friend.

by Adam Schultz on Jan 19, 2009 12:41 PM EST reply actions  

2009 tough year for falcons

how on earth can you possibly even say that? by looking at the schdule? every year some guy looks at next seasons schedule, in january, and decides that week one against team x, thats a win. etc, etc. it doesn’t work that way. if they don’t make it to the playoffs it won’t be because of the schedule. bottom line is this- if they are playing well they will win. even against teams that look great on paper today. injuries and everything else happen during the course of a year so you might as well just wait and play the games!

by toddm22 on Jan 19, 2009 5:15 PM EST reply actions  

It's an exercise in futility, I know

But you’ll note I didn’t confidently predict a win total. All I’m saying is that the Falcons need to continue to improve this off-season, because on paper this is a schedule with a lot of upper-tier teams.

by Dave Choate on Jan 19, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

And I quote:
What would you guys project? Can the Falcons repeat their amazing season, or should we temper our expectations?

So asketh Dave the Falconer. So I answered with a projection. Is it my set in stone projection for the year? No. It’s just what Dave asked for. I’m only using the information this past season gave me.

Of all people, Falcons fans should know that (predicted to only have 4 wins and instead having 11) pre-season projections are almost always wrong. Mine will be too.

But I read articles and comment on them, and I believe my comment was relevant.

"If the Falcons ever manage to win a Super Bowl in my lifetime, I'll french kiss a toilet." - a friend.

by Adam Schultz on Jan 19, 2009 6:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Pessimism is a textbook

defense mechanism. And I see that I’m not alone. Tlozwarlock, Funballd and JohnnyBacardi are right. Rationally, guarded optimism should be appropriate. But we’re talking about the Falcons. We’ve been here before. See rant/ mini history above.

At this point, pessimism is also a habit when it comes to the Birds. I suppose nowadays I could afford see a therapist who would talk me off the roof and it wouldn’t even threaten my masculinity.

You’d never know it but in everyday life I’m a pretty optimistic guy but this thread hit a nerve with me.

"When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something"

-Dick Butkus

by zooker on Jan 19, 2009 5:44 PM EST reply actions  

I am a pessimist or a realist myself but

Is it possible the Falcons have never operated their franchise in the right way?

 I am not old enough remember 73 or 78 but through out my life time, most of the Falcons failures have been the result of shooting themselves in the foot. They seemed to have never had “A PLAN” until now.

by cousinwalter on Jan 20, 2009 8:14 AM EST reply actions  

Well ...

I’m fairly sure they had a “plan” … as most NFL teams don’t waste millions of dollars w/out some sort of “plan.”

"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)

by FrankyWren on Jan 20, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

688 votes and only 11 comments.

Ok all you bystanders, come out of the wood work and make your voice heard!

"If the Falcons ever manage to win a Super Bowl in my lifetime, I'll french kiss a toilet." - a friend.

by Adam Schultz on Jan 20, 2009 8:38 PM EST reply actions  

2009

Actually, next year’s schedule is not too bad. Only one away game involves a serious trip and that’s to SF. All the others are nice and short. So here’s the skinny. There’s no reason the Falcons can’t win 7 games at home. That’s a MUST. Then they must try and win 3 games on the road. Doable. Don’t forget the other teams in our division get pretty much the same deal. Except Carolina will get Minn. and Arizona. So we should be favored to win the division at 10-6. New Orleans getting Detroit and the last team in the West gets a slightly better sked.

by dollmanr on Jan 23, 2009 9:51 AM EST reply actions  

I hope this thread ignites again

The Falcons do have what I believe to be a much tougher season ahead of them than the season they faced now but….

Look at the facts. Matt Ryan, Harry Douglas, Curtis Loftin, Coy Wire – they ALL have RAW talent and are apart of a growing process. Atlanta has proved that with young talent and great, solid personalities, they can WIN football games. There are few players on offense that won’t grow this off season and there is plenty of available talent in the free agency and the draft to help our defense grow. Comrade Dimitroff has proved that his decision-making abilities are far beyond that of most GMs and he has the ability to pick pure and RAW talent wether it be through the draft or free agency.

Pessimistic or optomistic. The facts say that the Falcons have a staff that is capable of picking and designing and powerful and successful team that will only grow as time allows. Countless stars have shined at a young age on this team and have many years to progress.

There is no doubt in my mind that this team has nowhere left to go but UP. The Cowboys have let drama and character issues halter their personal growth and the Falcons show a trend that is seemingly polar opposite to them. It is almost like a testimony that character outweighs overall talent. No matter who Dimitroff and Smith choose to be the new foundation of this team (wether it be powerful defensive playmakers who develop at a young age or offensive superstars – BIG Pettigrew fan here) – this team WILL be successful.

by MentallyMIA on Jan 25, 2009 1:03 AM EST reply actions  

Here, here!

Glad you see what so many others are failing to.

This is probably the first time the Falcons have ever been stable, smart, and future-proof enough to actually pull off back-to-back winning seasons.

I’m not expecting a Super Bowl appearance, but I’m expecting some at least nine wins.

"If the Falcons ever manage to win a Super Bowl in my lifetime, I'll french kiss a toilet." - a friend.

by Adam Schultz on Jan 27, 2009 1:24 AM EST up reply actions  

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