After Week 15: NFC Playoff picture
by TO falcon on Dec 15, 2008 3:20 PM EST
17 comments
There is some confusion about this amongst different blogs and article writers (to do with Dallas, Atlanta & Tampa all 9-5). Here's the situation (i formatted it for ease of finding your team);
West
Arizona has clinched the division.
South
Carolina has a two-game lead over Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Because the Panthers would not win a tiebreaker with either team, Carolina needs one win or one loss from both teams to clinch the division.
In the event of a three-way 11-5 tie, Tampa Bay and Atlanta would be in an extremely close Strength of Victory battle for the division title. Atlanta couldn’t win Strength of Victory, but could tie, and, with help from Dallas losing, could win based on Strength of Schedule.
North
Minnesota holds a one-game lead over Chicago, as well as the tiebreaker advantage. So one Vikings win or one Bears loss gives the Vikings the division championship.
East
The New York Giants have clinched the division.
Wild Card
The wild-card standings are as follows: Dallas, Tampa Bay and Atlanta are at 9-5, Chicago is at 8-6, Philadelphia is at 7-5-1 and plays Monday and Washington is at 7-7. New Orleans is eliminated at 7-7.
Dallas and Tampa Bay control their own destiny. Atlanta needs a loss by either team to control its own destiny. In a three-way tie with Dallas and Tampa Bay, Atlanta can not gain a Strength of Victory advantage over the Buccaneers, and if that were a tie, the Falcons would lose on Strength of Schedule.
In the event of a mutli-team 10-6 tie for the Wild Card, Tampa Bay holds a huge advantage based on conference record.
This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.
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here's one more point you missed
If Carolina loses to the NYG (very likely in New York) and they lose again to New Orleans (in New Orleans) – our conference record gets us in over them
by MentallyMIA on Dec 15, 2008 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
one detail I missed
this is assuming we win our next two
by MentallyMIA on Dec 15, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So are you saying ESPN is wrong?
Because they have Atlanta ahead of TB in the Wild Card standings.
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
by FrankyWren on Dec 15, 2008 4:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yes
The Falcons need to gain a game on Tampa or Dallas, or win out while Carolina loses out.
by SG Standard on Dec 15, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What if we all win out?
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
by FrankyWren on Dec 15, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Then...
Carolina takes the division and the 1 seed, Dallas and Tampa get the wild cards, and the most improbable season in recent football history ends exactly where people thought it would-with the Falcons out of the playoffs.
by SG Standard on Dec 15, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ESPN is wrong
Atlanta hasn’t played as many NFC games as Tampa – they hold the tie breaker with more NFC wins.
by MentallyMIA on Dec 15, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Got a link for those Wild Card standings?
The closest I can find on ESPN.com is Conference standings, which show Tampa ahead of us.
by tom slick on Dec 15, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
against tampa
we have an equal head to head, equal division record, equal opponents record but they would beat us based on strength of victory.
go hard or go home
by TO falcon on Dec 15, 2008 7:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yes, TO Falcon is correct. My blog has the deep down breakdown of the scenarios, but here’s where it stands with Atlanta-Tampa Bay tie-breakers -
Bucs/Falcons tie-breakers
1. Head-to-Head – Even (1-1)
2. Division record – Even – Tampa Bay 3-3, Atlanta 3-3
3. Common Games – Even – New Orleans, Carolina, Green Bay, Denver, Kansas City, MinnesotaDetroit, San Diego,Chicago, Oakland (assuming both win out) – Tampa Bay 9-3, Atlanta 9-3
4. Conference Record (Assuming both win out) – Even – Tampa Bay 8-4, Atlanta 8-4
5. Strength of Victory – Currently Bucs lead – Tampa Bay 54-72 .428, Atlanta 51-75 .404, if both teams win out, they will be tied 62-94.
6. Strength of Schedule – Currently Bucs lead – Tampa Bay 106-118 .473, Atlanta 104-118-1 .466 – As long as Dallas has a better record than Philadelphia, the Bucs will win this tie-breaker
So basically, this fluid strength of victory flipped for the Bucs this week with Seattle’s victory over St. Louis, if both the Bucs and Falcons win out, their strength of victory will be tied, forcing them to the sixth tie-breaker, which favors Tampa Bay. If Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta all win out, Dallas is the 5 seed, Tampa Bay the 6 and Atlanta’s home for christmas.
The Falcons can clinch a playoff spot on Sunday with victory over Minnesota and a loss by Tampa Bay AND Philadelphia OR Dallas.
Tampa Bay can clinch with a victory over San Diego and a loss by Atlanta AND Philadelphia OR Dallas.
by JasonDLT on Dec 16, 2008 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Crazy
It’s going to take some strong victories and a lot of luck, but at least we’re still talking about having a chance.
by Dave the Falconer on Dec 15, 2008 11:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
it is still possible
for a division win for the Falcons with:
- Bucs loss to either Chargers OR Raiders AND Carolina loss both games to Giants AND Saints.
- seed would be heading to Atlanta.
go hard or go home
by TO falcon on Dec 16, 2008 1:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
supposed to say
number 2 seed, but it formatted itself :S
go hard or go home
by TO falcon on Dec 16, 2008 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's a rough road
I don’t really forsee Tampa Bay losing either of their games – though it sure would be nice for the Chargers to come to Tampa and make something happen for us.
Dallas really seems to be a hit or miss team as of late… hopefully Romo chokes out some interceptions to Baltimore and Choice gets brought down to earth by the now-aware-of-him Baltimore defense.
It would be nice if the NYG could get their stuff together in time to prove Carolina really isn’t as good as they have been looking the last few weeks – I actually have more faith in NO to secure their win against Carolina than I do the Giants.
by MentallyMIA on Dec 16, 2008 1:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
As a Bucs fan, I’m rooting for Dallas to choke as well and for both of our teams to finish up strong. I’d love to see three from the NFC South go to the playoffs while the mighty NFC East gets 1.
by JasonDLT on Dec 18, 2008 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Quietly looking the other way..
….and whistling.
In a way, each of us has an El Guapo to face.
by runningback on Dec 16, 2008 9:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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