In a thread on another forum about a London team a discussion broke out about whether or not it could sustain an NFL team, this got me thinking about the recent valuations results. This isn't much to do with the original post but that's where i got started from.
How have valuations changed recently? How much by? Does this affect winning? Who has increased the most?
- I started by entering the valuations from both 2000 and 2008 and then ranking out of 32 (obviously with the Texans 32 due to no data).
- Next i began comparing the percentage change between valuations of franchises in 2000 and 2008. I then ranked each increase out of 32 (again the Texans 32 due to no data).
- This then lead to me working out the numerical change in rank.
- Finally i added previous data on number of wins to the end of the spreadsheet to look for correlation.
Issues with the study
- Firstly, the Texans once again caused problems as they were set up in 2002 and so were dropped from a lot of data sets.
- Secondly, the Seahawks moved divisions in 2001 but i have decided to include them in NFC valuations as in essence any potential improvement will have occurred in the NFC and this is what we are looking for.
TOP 10 in 2000
1. Redskins - $741m
2. Cowboys - $713m
3. Browns - $557m
4. Bucs - $532m
5. Panthers - $513m
6. Titans - $506m
7. Ravens - $479m
8. Dolphins - $472m
9. Broncos - $471m
10. Pats - $464m
TOP 10 in 2008
1. Redskins - $1,423m
2. Pats - $1,176m
3. Cowboys - $1,173m
4. Texans - $1,043m
5. Eagles - $1,024m
6. Broncos - $975m
7. Browns - $970m
8. Bucs - $955m
9. Ravens - $946m
10. Bears - $945m
TOP 10 % Change from 2000-20008
1. Eagles - 211.25%
2. Bears - 196.24%
3. Packers - 170.33%
4. Cardinals - 158.69%
5. Pats - 153.45%
6. Colts - 152.11%
7. Chiefs - 143.60%
8. Raiders - 133.65%
9. Giants - 129.97%
10. Jets - 128.13%
- The first thing i noticed was that franchises appear to have large valuations early in their life cycles (Titans, Texans, Panthers), this is probably due to brand new stadia and facilities that are top of the range and heavy capital investment.
- In addition to this there appears to be a pattern of this valuation drying up (Titans and Panthers) and these franchise don't grow as fast as the others.
- The next thing that jumped out at me is that it appears the NFC behind, although gaining, on the AFC in terms of total valuation in both periods.
- However, the average increase's were:
AFC - 108.02%
NFC - 124.92%
- If this soon continues the NFC as a whole will be worth more financial than the AFC, however some may attribute that to the shift of the Seahawks, but this is not the case as i included them in the NFC count in the first place.
- The top 10 rankings appear to show parity throughout the NFL, however, the top 4 growing valued teams were all from the NFC.
- It is worth noting that the Broncos were the only team that moved up rankings numerically but not into the TOP 10 ranked % increase in valuation (18)
- The Jags were ranked 31st for increasing their valuation yet gained 4 wins over the 2 seasons, on the contrary, the Eagles increased the most and lost 3 wins over the same period.
- This leads me to believe that comparing just 2 seasons is inappropriate but also that valuation has little to do with performance.
- However, going the opposite way i would say that success feeds valuation, the most obviously example being the Patriots.
Thank you for your patience. Once again i have a spreadsheet with more data on but i can't attach it on this forum