A Look At The Falcons Red Zone Performance: Week 10
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We're back with this week's edition of Why-Does-This-Team-Not-Win-When-They-Do-So-Awesome-In-The-Red-Zone. This previous week, against the Panthers, we managed to convert four of five chances, though two were for field goals, and then Jason Elam whiffed on another kick. That's still nothing to sneeze at, and it continues the Falcons' preposterously good streak inside the 20. That should mean success for us, but lately it hasn't.
Why, you ask? Because on our other drives we do absolutely nothing. Against the Panthers, Ryan threw two costly, drive-killing interceptions. On another, we got to the Carolina 39, just out side of reasonable field goal range, and promptly threw two short passes (both incomplete and to Tony Gonzalez) and Jason Snelling mustered a two yard run. Boom! Punt. On yet another, the Falcons actually went for it with three straight deep passes right before the half, only to see all of them fall incomplete.
In essence, we're an inconsistent team, something that was expected of us on defense but certainly not with this weapons-grade offense. Matt Ryan's slow decline over the last few games has had a lot to do with it, but certainly the loss of Harry Douglas seems to be hurting more than ever before. In the red zone, we have big targets with good hands who can make things happen by out-muscling everyone else. When the field's a little more open, no such luck.
Thoughts?
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Norwood returns to practice
What? Good news? Sounds like a shot in the arm for our beleaguered offense.
1 day ago
tom slick
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Remaining Schedule: It's Gotten "Easier"
Take the "easier" in the title very lightly. A lot of our remaining opponents lost last weekend (save those on a BYE) but don't be fooled. Each and every last game of this season will be a fight. The injuries are mounting and the competition, though looking less scarier by the week, will want a win against us. The time for complacency has passed. The Falcons either fight until not a man is left standing or they can go ahead and look to next year.
No real changes to the trend of the graph, but the records are getting worse. As far as I can tell, none of our remaining opponents (that were not on a bye) won last weekend save those dastardly Saints.

The real change is in my projected week-of-game opponents' records. Check this out.

Notice how the number of projected winning record opponents has dropped from four to three. After the Jets managed to lose to the Jaguars, I had to change my line of thinking on them. We still get a 1 loss Saints team (thanks to the New England Patriots) and we're still having to face a Philly team that will come into the Dome after winning against the Bears and Redskins.
After we face the Giants, we get three straight Dome games. I'm holding out for the crowd to be a key factor in our wins against the Bucs and Eagles. That Saints matchup, though, I dunno. I swear I think we should wear something different for them. The throwback, the all-black alt, maybe just the red helmets. Something to signify the importance of it...
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Talking Giants With Big Blue View
Those of you who tuned in for my chats with Saintsational from Canal Street Chronicles will have a basic idea of how this goes. A couple nights ago I sat down to talk with Ed Valentine, the head blogger over at Big Blue View, our network's Giants blog, in an effort to find our more about our erstwhile opponents.
Strictly football for this dialogue, which features two grown men transformed into statues of negativity. Will we each pick against our own team because of the recent woes of the Falcons and Giants? You'll just have to read through to find it, so join me after the jump.
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A Review Of Peter King's New Book "Monday Morning Quarterback"
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A Look Ahead and the Shrinking Schedule
Everything is now Serious Business. If we want a winning season, we have to become a consistent team.
New York Giants
Where: Giants Stadium
When: Sunday November 22nd, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: To be the best, you have to beat the best, which seemingly no longer pertains to this contest.
Importance: Serious Business. Both teams are 5-4 and looking for redemption.
Notes: Falcons are 1-4 on the road. Think about that long and hard. Now look up. See this matchup? Are you scared? Me too.
The Falcons win if: No more injuries occur and Norwood is back and Ryan settles down and Michael Turner somehow miraculously heals in one week and our defense suddenly all grow three or four extra arms and
The Giants win if: The team that won five in a row at the start of the season shows.
Prediction: The Falcons lose.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday November 29th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Divisional Game
Importance: Serious Business.
Notes: At least it's in the Georgia Dome, where the Falcons are 4-0.
The Falcons win if: they get healthier and don't make too many mistakes.
The Bucs win if: they take advantage of any and all opportunities Falcons mistakes give them.
Prediction: Falcons win.
Philadelphia Eagles
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday December 6th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Because Eagles and Falcons are natural enemies.
Importance: Serious Business. Let's avenge 2004's playoff loss.
Notes: The Eagles are looking so wishy-washy I doubt they can come into the Dome playing their strongest ball. And hopefully, we'll have a calmer Matt Ryan and a healthy Jerious Norwood.
Prediction: Falcons win.
New Orleans Saints 2: The Season Definer
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday December 13th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Divisional Game
Importance: Serious Business.
Notes: I just don't see us winning here, even in our own Dome.
Prediction: Falcons lose.
New York Jets
Where: Giants Stadium
When: Sunday December 20th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Because New Yorkers couldn’t get enough of us the first go round against the Giants.
Importance: Serious Business
Notes: The Jets are, as Don Banks has said, imposters. Hopefully our Falcons aren't.
Prediction: Falcons win.
Buffalo Bills
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday December 27th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: CBS
Why: The Bills aren't looking too good. Uh oh...
Importance: Serious Business
Notes: Even hampered by injury, I think we can win this one.
Prediction: Falcons win
Tampa Bay Buccaneers With a Vengeance
Where: Raymond James Stadium
When: Sunday January 3rd, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Divisional Game
Importance: Hmm...
Notes: Tampa may have more to gain from this game than we would, and it's in their stadium to boot. We better bring our A game.
Prediction: Falcons win, barring any miracles for the struggling Bucs.
Current season record: 5-4 (Wins against MIA, CAR, SF, CHI, WAS; losses against NE, DAL, NO, CAR)
Current season prediction: 10-6 (Wins: MIA, CAR, SF, CHI, WAS, TB, PHI, NYJ, BUF, TB; Loss: NE, DAL, CAR, NO, NYG, NO)
tlozwarlock's Current Prediction record: 7-2 (The pitfall came. And it sucked.)
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If Michael Turner Is Out, Let's Discuss Our Other Options
There's a lot of reports swirling around about just what's going to happen to Michael Turner this weekend, and almost all of them are a cause for concern.
Pretty much everyone seems to agree that Turner has sprained his ankle, but the severity of that sprain seems to be in doubt. If you listen to Dr. Roddy White, Turner will play this weekend. Listen to Mike Smith and that's a little less specific "confident" that he'll play again in 2009. And everything in between.
I would personally put the likelihood that Turner plays this week at like 25%, which leaves us to sort through our remaining options and figure out who we'll be trotting out against the Giants. The obvious choice for a feature back is Jason Snelling, who runs like an angry bull and can even catch a pass or two. Given the health and talent level of everyone else on the roster, he's pretty much the default. It's also a really cool thing to see a former seventh round pick who has battled epilepsy his whole life getting ready to start for the Falcons. Here's hoping he has a good week.
Beyond that, health really is going to play a role. Aaron Stecker has been re-signed and is available to go, but he's not exactly an elite option and will chiefly be useful for spelling Snelling. If Jerious Norwood is healthy, he could easily get ten touches and make an immediate impact with his speed, but I'm not sure he's going to be up for the game on Sunday. Unless we're willing to drop someone else off the roster to make room for another back, we really don't have any other options.
Now that we've established that, feel free to take a crack at predicting how this will all go down and how well our rushing attack will fare against the Giants.
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What If Sports and The Falcoholic Join Forces
Ever sat there in your licensed Falcons easy chair, wearing your throwback Jamal Anderson jersey, pondering just how well the 1998 Falcons could do against an opponent on this year's schedule? Have you, like I'm sure reader orang3b has, sat there with your voluminous notes and play charts and stat sheets, dreaming of a chance to actually use the numbers you so lovingly analyze? Well, dream and ponder no longer. What If Sports has partnered with your favorite Falcons blog to bring you some awesome features.
What If Sports is, at its heart, a fully-functional fantasy simulator. You can build a "dream team" in any sport, drafting the players you choose from any year on any team or you can simply take, say the '76 Steelers, and pit them against the '07 Patriots. Or, if you're feeling particularly mean spirited, you can pit the '07 Patriots against the '07 Lions 10,001 times. If What If Sports can get away with simulating the Browns-Ravens MNF matchup 10,001 times, I'm sure you won't have any conflicts of conscience.
With all of this simulation, you're probably wondering where the "playing with the numbers" part comes in. You fantasy football nuts should zoom in right here -> What If Sports lets you build a fantasy sports team with your favorite players from any era, any team, any style of play and then puts your personal all-time pro bowl team in a league to play against up to 24 other stat mavens' perfect teams. The gurus at What If call this feature SimLeague.
Now, onto business. I plan to introduce a few new features on the site utilizing What If Sports' snazzy technology. First and foremost, I'll either be taking some classic teams of Falcons lore and pitting them against modern day foes, or taking our new look Falcons to battle against older foes that deserve a spanking or, in some cases, a re-spanking.
Also, What If was nice enough to provide us with a free 24 slot Falcoholic SimLeague. Yes, we now officially have a fantasy fantasy football league. Dave and I take up two slots, so that invariably means that 22 of you will be the lucky winners of some hot, free SimLeague action. You're welcome in advance. I'll run the raffle soon.
To kick off this day of forces joining, I decided to pit our 2008 surprise playoff team against our 2004 surprise playoff team. Both teams went 11-5, both went into the playoffs. Of course, the '04 Falcons made it all the way to the NFC Championship while our newer Falcons lost in the Wild Card. Apparently, that doesn't matter. Ryan and company completely demolished 'em 48 to 21. What a difference four years makes, eh? Check out the full boxscore
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